ICML 2025

Accurate and reliable probability predictions are essential for multi-class supervised learning tasks, where well-calibrated models enable rational decision-making. While isotonic regression has proven effective for binary calibration, its extension to multi-class problems via one-vs-rest calibration produced suboptimal results when compared to parametric methods, limiting its practical adoption. In this work, we propose novel isotonic normalization-aware techniques for multiclass calibration, grounded in natural and intuitive assumptions expected by practitioners. Unlike prior approaches, our methods inherently account for probability normalization by either incorporating normalization directly into the optimization process (NA-FIR) or modeling the problem as a cumulative bivariate isotonic regression (SCIR). Empirical evaluation on a variety of text and image classification datasets across different model architectures reveals that our approach consistently improves negative log-likelihood (NLL) and expected calibration error (ECE) metrics.

In this work, we develop a hypothesis testing framework to determine whether pairwise comparison data is generated by an underlying \emph{generalized Thurstone model} $\mathcal{T}_F$ for a given choice function $F$. While prior work has predominantly focused on parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for such models, we address the fundamental problem of minimax hypothesis testing for $\mathcal{T}_F$ models. We formulate this testing problem by introducing a notion of separation distance between general pairwise comparison models and the class of $\mathcal{T}_F$ models. We then derive upper and lower bounds on the critical threshold for testing that depend on the topology of the observation graph. For the special case of complete observation graphs, this threshold scales as $Θ((nk)^{-1/2})$, where $n$ is the number of agents and $k$ is the number of comparisons per pair. Furthermore, we propose a hypothesis test based on our separation distance, construct confidence intervals, establish time-uniform bounds on the probabilities of type I and II errors using reverse martingale techniques, and derive minimax lower bounds using information-theoretic methods. Finally, we validate our results through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) for semantic segmentation aims to transfer knowledge from a labeled source domain to an unlabeled target domain. Despite the effectiveness of self-training techniques in UDA, they struggle to learn each class in a balanced manner due to inherent class imbalance and distribution shift in both data and label space between domains. To address this issue, we propose Balanced Learning for Domain Adaptation (BLDA), a novel approach to directly assess and alleviate class bias without requiring prior knowledge about the distribution shift. First, we identify over-predicted and under-predicted classes by analyzing the distribution of predicted logits. Subsequently, we introduce a post-hoc approach to align the logits distributions across different classes using shared anchor distributions. To further consider the network's need to generate unbiased pseudo-labels during self-training, we estimate logits distributions online and incorporate logits correction terms into the loss function. Moreover, we leverage the resulting cumulative density as domain-shared structural knowledge to connect the source and target domains. Extensive experiments on two standard UDA semantic segmentation benchmarks demonstrate that BLDA consistently improves performance, especially for under-predicted classes, when integrated into various existing methods. Code is available at https://github.com/Woof6/BLDA.

In addressing the challenge of Crystal Structure Prediction (CSP), symmetry-aware deep learning models, particularly diffusion models, have been extensively studied, which treat CSP as a conditional generation task. However, ensuring permutation, rotation, and periodic translation equivariance during diffusion process remains incompletely addressed. In this work, we propose EquiCSP, a novel equivariant diffusion-based generative model. We not only address the overlooked issue of lattice permutation equivariance in existing models, but also develop a unique noising algorithm that rigorously maintains periodic translation equivariance throughout both training and inference processes. Our experiments indicate that EquiCSP significantly surpasses existing models in terms of generating accurate structures and demonstrates faster convergence during the training process.

In this paper, we propose a novel 3D registration paradigm, Generative Point Cloud Registration, which bridges advanced 2D generative models with 3D matching tasks to enhance registration performance. Our key idea is to generate cross-view consistent image pairs that are well-aligned with the source and target point clouds, enabling geometry-color feature fusion to facilitate robust matching. To ensure high-quality matching, the generated image pair should feature both 2D-3D geometric consistency and cross-view texture consistency. To achieve this, we introduce Match-ControlNet, a matching-specific, controllable 2D generative model. Specifically, it leverages the depth-conditioned generation capability of ControlNet to produce images that are geometrically aligned with depth maps derived from point clouds, ensuring 2D-3D geometric consistency. Additionally, by incorporating a coupled conditional denoising scheme and coupled prompt guidance, Match-ControlNet further promotes cross-view feature interaction, guiding texture consistency generation. Our generative 3D registration paradigm is general and could be seamlessly integrated into various registration methods to enhance their performance. Extensive experiments on 3DMatch and ScanNet datasets verify the effectiveness of our approach.

Addressing selection bias in latent variable causal discovery is important yet underexplored, largely due to a lack of suitable statistical tools: While various tools beyond basic conditional independencies have been developed to handle latent variables, none have been adapted for selection bias. We make an attempt by studying rank constraints, which, as a generalization to conditional independence constraints, exploits the ranks of covariance submatrices in linear Gaussian models. We show that although selection can significantly complicate the joint distribution, interestingly, the ranks in the biased covariance matrices still preserve meaningful information about both causal structures and selection mechanisms. We provide a graph-theoretic characterization of such rank constraints. Using this tool, we demonstrate that the one-factor model, a classical latent variable model, can be identified under selection bias. Simulations and real-world experiments confirm the effectiveness of using our rank constraints.

Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction, a core task in recommendation systems, aims to estimate the probability of users clicking on items. Existing models predominantly follow a discriminative paradigm, which relies heavily on explicit interactions between raw ID embeddings. However, this paradigm inherently renders them susceptible to two critical issues: embedding dimensional collapse and information redundancy, stemming from the over-reliance on feature interactions \emph{over raw ID embeddings}. To address these limitations, we propose a novel \emph{Supervised Feature Generation (SFG)} framework, \emph{shifting the paradigm from discriminative ``feature interaction"to generative ``feature generation"}. Specifically, SFG comprises two key components: an \emph{Encoder} that constructs hidden embeddings for each feature, and a \emph{Decoder} tasked with regenerating the feature embeddings of all features from these hidden representations. Unlike existing generative approaches that adopt self-supervised losses, we introduce a supervised loss to utilize the supervised signal, \ie, click or not, in the CTR prediction task. This framework exhibits strong generalizability: it can be seamlessly integrated with most existing CTR models, reformulating them under the generative paradigm. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SFG consistently mitigates embedding collapse and reduces information redundancy, while yielding substantial performance gains across various datasets and base models. The code is available at https://github.com/USTC-StarTeam/GE4Rec.

Translating natural language (NL) into a formal language such as temporal logic (TL) is integral for human communication with robots and autonomous systems. State-of-the-art approaches decompose the task into a lifting of atomic propositions (APs) phase and a translation phase. However, existing methods struggle with accurate lifting, the existence of co-references, and learning from limited data. In this paper, we propose a framework for NL to TL translation called Grammar Forced Translation (GraFT). The framework is based on the observation that previous work solves both the lifting and translation steps by letting a language model iteratively predict tokens from its full vocabulary. In contrast, GraFT reduces the complexity of both tasks by restricting the set of valid output tokens from the full vocabulary to only a handful in each step. The solution space reduction is obtained by exploiting the unique properties of each problem. We also provide a theoretical justification for why the solution space reduction leads to more efficient learning. We evaluate the effectiveness of GraFT using the CW, GLTL, and Navi benchmarks. Compared with state-of-the-art translation approaches, it can be observed that GraFT the end-to-end translation accuracy by 5.49% and out-of-domain translation accuracy by 14.06% on average.

Despite recent advancements of fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) to facilitate agent tasks, parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) methodologies for agent remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce three key strategies for PEFT in agent tasks: 1) Inspired by the increasingly dominant Reason+Action paradigm, we first decompose the capabilities necessary for the agent tasks into three distinct roles: reasoner, executor, and summarizer. The reasoner is responsible for comprehending the user's query and determining the next role based on the execution trajectory. The executor is tasked with identifying the appropriate functions and parameters to invoke. The summarizer conveys the distilled information from conversations back to the user. 2) We then propose the Mixture-of-Roles (MoR) framework, which comprises three specialized Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) groups, each designated to fulfill a distinct role. By focusing on their respective specialized capabilities and engaging in collaborative interactions, these LoRAs collectively accomplish the agent task. 3) To effectively fine-tune the framework, we develop a multi-role data generation pipeline based on publicly available datasets, incorporating role-specific content completion and reliability verification. We conduct extensive experiments and thorough ablation studies on various LLMs and agent benchmarks, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed method. This project is publicly available at https://mor-agent.github.io.

In applications with significant class imbalance or asymmetric costs, metrics such as the $F_\beta$-measure, AM measure, Jaccard similarity coefficient, and weighted accuracy offer more suitable evaluation criteria than standard binary classification loss. However, optimizing these metrics present significant computational and statistical challenges. Existing approaches often rely on the characterization of the Bayes-optimal classifier, and use threshold-based methods that first estimate class probabilities and then seek an optimal threshold. This leads to algorithms that are not tailored to restricted hypothesis sets and lack finite-sample performance guarantees. In this work, we introduce principled algorithms for optimizing generalized metrics, supported by $H$-consistency and finite-sample generalization bounds. Our approach reformulates metric optimization as a generalized cost-sensitive learning problem, enabling the design of novel surrogate loss functions with provable $H$-consistency guarantees. Leveraging this framework, we develop new algorithms, METRO (Metric Optimization), with strong theoretical performance guarantees. We report the results of experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of our methods compared to prior baselines.

Accurately solving partial differential equations (PDEs) is critical to understanding complex scientific and engineering phenomena, yet traditional numerical solvers are computationally expensive. Surrogate models offer a more efficient alternative, but their development is hindered by the cost of generating sufficient training data from numerical solvers. In this paper, we present a novel framework for active learning (AL) in PDE surrogate modeling that reduces this cost. Unlike the existing AL methods for PDEs that always acquire entire PDE trajectories, our approach strategically generates only the most important time steps with the numerical solver, while employing the surrogate model to approximate the remaining steps. This dramatically reduces the cost incurred by each trajectory and thus allows the active learning algorithm to try out a more diverse set of trajectories given the same budget. To accommodate this novel framework, we develop an acquisition function that estimates the utility of a set of time steps by approximating its resulting variance reduction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several benchmark PDEs, including the Burgers' equation, Korteweg-De Vries equation, Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation, and the compressible Navier-Stokes equation. Experiments show that our approach improves performance by large margins over the best existing method. Our method not only reduces average error but also the 99\%, 95\%, and 50\% quantiles of error, which is rare for an AL algorithm. All in all, our approach offers a data-efficient solution to surrogate modeling for PDEs.

Binary Spiking Neural Networks (BSNNs) offer promising efficiency advantages for resource-constrained computing. However, their training algorithms often require substantial memory overhead due to latent weights storage and temporal processing requirements. To address this issue, we propose Binary Spiking Online (BSO) optimization algorithm, a novel online training algorithm that significantly reduces training memory. BSO directly updates weights through flip signals under the online training framework. These signals are triggered when the product of gradient momentum and weights exceeds a threshold, eliminating the need for latent weights during training. To enhance performance, we propose T-BSO, a temporal-aware variant that leverages the inherent temporal dynamics of BSNNs by capturing gradient information across time steps for adaptive threshold adjustment. Theoretical analysis establishes convergence guarantees for both BSO and T-BSO, with formal regret bounds characterizing their convergence rates. Extensive experiments demonstrate that both BSO and T-BSO achieve superior optimization performance compared to existing training methods for BSNNs. The codes are available at https://github.com/hamings1/BSO.

We propose and investigate probabilistic guarantees for the adversarial robustness of classification algorithms. While traditional formal verification approaches for robustness are intractable and sampling-based approaches do not provide formal guarantees, our approach is able to efficiently certify a probabilistic relaxation of robustness. The key idea is to sample an $ε$-net and invoke a local robustness oracle on the sample. Remarkably, the size of the sample needed to achieve probably approximately global robustness guarantees is independent of the input dimensionality, the number of classes, and the learning algorithm itself. Our approach can, therefore, be applied even to large neural networks that are beyond the scope of traditional formal verification. Experiments empirically confirm that it characterizes robustness better than state-of-the-art sampling-based approaches and scales better than formal methods.

We study the problem of learning the topology of a directed Gaussian Graphical Model under the equal-variance assumption, where the graph has $n$ nodes and maximum in-degree $d$. Prior work has established that $O(d \log n)$ samples are sufficient for this task. However, an important factor that is often overlooked in these analyses is the dependence on the condition number of the covariance matrix of the model. Indeed, all algorithms from prior work require a number of samples that grows polynomially with this condition number. In many cases this is unsatisfactory, since the condition number could grow polynomially with $n$, rendering these prior approaches impractical in high-dimensional settings. In this work, we provide an algorithm that recovers the underlying graph and prove that the number of samples required is independent of the condition number. Furthermore, we establish lower bounds that nearly match the upper bound up to a $d$-factor, thus providing an almost tight characterization of the true sample complexity of the problem. Moreover, under a further assumption that all the variances of the variables are bounded, we design a polynomial-time algorithm that recovers the underlying graph, at the cost of an additional polynomial dependence of the sample complexity on $d$. We complement our theoretical findings with simulations on synthetic datasets that confirm our predictions.

Off-dynamics reinforcement learning (RL), where training and deployment transition dynamics are different, can be formulated as learning in a robust Markov decision process (RMDP) where uncertainties in transition dynamics are imposed. Existing literature mostly assumes access to generative models allowing arbitrary state-action queries or pre-collected datasets with a good state coverage of the deployment environment, bypassing the challenge of exploration. In this work, we study a more realistic and challenging setting where the agent is limited to online interaction with the training environment. To capture the intrinsic difficulty of exploration in online RMDPs, we introduce the supremal visitation ratio, a novel quantity that measures the mismatch between the training dynamics and the deployment dynamics. We show that if this ratio is unbounded, online learning becomes exponentially hard. We propose the first computationally efficient algorithm that achieves sublinear regret in online RMDPs with $f$-divergence based transition uncertainties. We also establish matching regret lower bounds, demonstrating that our algorithm achieves optimal dependence on both the supremal visitation ratio and the number of interaction episodes. Finally, we validate our theoretical results through comprehensive numerical experiments.

We study a model of subscription-based platforms where users pay a fixed fee for unlimited access to content, and creators receive a share of the revenue. Existing approaches to detecting fraud predominantly rely on machine learning methods, engaging in an ongoing arms race with bad actors. We explore revenue division mechanisms that inherently disincentivize manipulation. We formalize three types of manipulation-resistance axioms and examine which existing rules satisfy these. We show that a mechanism widely used by streaming platforms, not only fails to prevent fraud, but also makes detecting manipulation computationally intractable. We also introduce a novel rule, ScaledUserProp, that satisfies all three manipulation-resistance axioms. Finally, experiments with both real-world and synthetic streaming data support ScaledUserProp as a fairer alternative compared to existing rules.

Various data modalities are common in real-world applications (e.g., electronic health records, medical images and clinical notes in healthcare). It is essential to develop multimodal learning methods to aggregate various information from multiple modalities. The main challenge is how to appropriately align and fuse the representations of different modalities into a joint distribution. Existing methods mainly rely on concatenation or the Kronecker product, oversimplifying the interaction structure between modalities and indicating a need to model more complex interactions. Additionally, the joint distribution of latent representations with higher-order interactions is underexplored. Copula is a powerful statistical structure for modelling the interactions among variables, as it naturally bridges the joint distribution and marginal distributions of multiple variables. We propose a novel copula-driven multimodal learning framework, which focuses on learning the joint distribution of various modalities to capture the complex interactions among them. The key idea is to interpret the copula model as a tool to align the marginal distributions of the modalities efficiently. By assuming a Gaussian mixture distribution for each modality and a copula model on the joint distribution, our model can generate accurate representations for missing modalities. Extensive experiments on public MIMIC datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model over other competitors. The code is available at https://github.com/HKU-MedAI/CMCM.

Diversified distribution matching (DDM) finds a unified translation function mapping a diverse collection of conditional source distributions to their target counterparts. DDM was proposed to resolve content misalignment issues in unpaired domain translation, achieving translation identifiability. However, DDM has only been implemented using GANs due to its constraints on the translation function. GANs are often unstable to train and do not provide the transport trajectory information -- yet such trajectories are useful in applications such as single-cell evolution analysis and robot route planning. This work introduces diversified flow matching (DFM), an ODE-based framework for DDM. Adapting flow matching (FM) to enforce a unified translation function as in DDM is challenging, as FM learns the translation function's velocity rather than the translation function itself. A custom bilevel optimization-based training loss, a nonlinear interpolant, and a structural reformulation are proposed to address these challenges, offering a tangible implementation. To our knowledge, DFM is the first ODE-based approach guaranteeing translation identifiability. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets validate the proposed method.

Two-stage Stochastic Programming (2SP) is a standard framework for modeling decision-making problems under uncertainty. While numerous methods exist, solving such problems with many scenarios remains challenging. Selecting representative scenarios is a practical method for accelerating solutions. However, current approaches typically rely on clustering or Monte Carlo sampling, failing to integrate scenario information deeply and overlooking the significant impact of the scenario order on solving time. To address these issues, we develop HGCN2SP, a novel model with a hierarchical graph designed for 2SP problems, encoding each scenario and modeling their relationships hierarchically. The model is trained in a reinforcement learning paradigm to utilize the feedback of the solver. The policy network is equipped with a hierarchical graph convolutional network for feature encoding and an attention-based decoder for scenario selection in proper order. Evaluation of two classic 2SP problems demonstrates that HGCN2SP provides high-quality decisions in a short computational time. Furthermore, HGCN2SP exhibits remarkable generalization capabilities in handling large-scale instances, even with a substantial number of variables or scenarios that were unseen during the training phase.

Inference latency stands as a critical bottleneck in the large-scale deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs). Speculative decoding methods have recently shown promise in accelerating inference without compromising the output distribution. However, existing work typically relies on a dualistic draft-verify framework and lacks rigorous theoretical grounding. In this paper, we introduce a novel \emph{polybasic} speculative decoding framework, underpinned by a comprehensive theoretical analysis. Specifically, we prove a fundamental theorem that characterizes the optimal inference time for multi-model speculative decoding systems, shedding light on how to extend beyond the dualistic approach to a more general polybasic paradigm. Through our theoretical investigation of multi-model token generation, we expose and optimize the interplay between model capabilities, acceptance lengths, and overall computational cost. Our framework supports both standalone implementation and integration with existing speculative techniques, leading to accelerated performance in practice. Experimental results across multiple model families demonstrate that our approach yields speedup ratios ranging from $3.31\times$ to $4.01\times$ for LLaMA2-Chat 7B, up to $3.87 \times$ for LLaMA3-8B, up to $4.43 \times$ for Vicuna-7B and up to $3.85 \times$ for Qwen2-7B -- all while preserving the original output distribution. We release our theoretical proofs and implementation code to facilitate further investigation into polybasic speculative decoding.