Disentangling Linear Quadratic Control with Untrusted ML Predictions

Abstract

Uncertain perturbations in dynamical systems often arise from diverse resources, represented by latent components. The predictions for these components, typically generated by “black-box” machine learning tools, are prone to inaccuracies. To tackle this challenge, we introduce D ISC , a novel policy that learns a confidence parameter online to harness the potential of accurate predictions while also mitigating the impact of erroneous forecasts. When predictions are precise, D ISC leverages this information to achieve near-optimal performance. Conversely, in the case of significant prediction errors, it still has a worst-case competitive ratio guarantee. We provide competitive ratio bounds for D ISC under both linear mixing of latent variables as well as a broader class of mixing functions. Our results highlight a first-of-its-kind “best-of-both-worlds” integration of machine-learned predictions, thus lead to a near-optimal consistency and robustness tradeoff, which provably improves what can be obtained without learning the confidence parameter. We validate the applicability of D ISC across a spectrum of practical scenarios.