Time Series Graphical Lasso and Sparse VAR Estimation

Abstract

We improve upon the two-stage sparse vector autoregression (sVAR) method in Davis et al. (2016) by proposing an alternative two-stage modified sVAR method which relies on time series graphical lasso to estimate sparse inverse spectral density in the first stage, and the second stage refines non-zero entries of the AR coefficient matrices using a false discovery rate (FDR) procedure. Our method has the advantage of avoiding the inversion of the spectral density matrix but has to deal with optimization over Hermitian matrices with complex-valued entries. It significantly improves the computational time with a little loss in forecasting performance. We study the properties of our proposed method and compare the performance of the two methods using simulated and a real macro-economic dataset. Our simulation results show that the proposed modification or msVAR is a preferred choice when the goal is to learn the structure of the AR coefficient matrices while sVAR outperforms msVAR when the ultimate task is forecasting.