Novel Machine Learning Approach for Predicting Poverty using Temperature and Remote Sensing Data in Ethiopia

Abstract

In many developing nations, a lack of poverty data prevents critical humanitarian organizations from responding to large-scale crises. Currently, socioeconomic surveys are the only method implemented on a large scale for organizations and researchers to measure and track poverty. However, the inability to collect survey data efficiently and inexpensively leads to significant temporal gaps in poverty data; these gaps severely limit the ability of organizational entities to address poverty at its root cause. We propose a transfer learning model based on surface temperature change and remote sensing data to extract features useful for predicting poverty rates. Machine learning, supported by data sources of poverty indicators, has the potential to estimate poverty rates accurately and within strict time constraints. Higher temperatures, as a result of climate change, have caused numerous agricultural obstacles, socioeconomic issues, and environmental disruptions, trapping families in developing countries in cycles of poverty. To find patterns of poverty relating to temperature that have the highest influence on spatial poverty rates, we use remote sensing data. The two-step transfer model predicts the temperature delta from high resolution satellite imagery and then extracts image features useful for predicting poverty. The resulting model achieved 80% accuracy on temperature prediction. This method takes advantage of abundant satellite and temperature data to measure poverty in a manner comparable to the existing survey methods and exceeds similar models of poverty prediction.