QuantProb: Generalizing Probabilities along with Predictions for a Pre-trained Classifier

Abstract

Quantification of Uncertainty in predictions is a challenging problem. In the classification settings, although deep learning based models generalize well, class probabilities often lack reliability. Calibration errors are used to quantify uncertainty, and several methods exist to minimize calibration error. We argue that between the choice of having a minimum calibration error on original distribution which increases across distortions or having a (possibly slightly higher) calibration error which is constant across distortions, we prefer the latter We hypothesize that the reason for unreliability of deep networks is - The way neural networks are currently trained, the probabilities do not generalize across small distortions. We observe that quantile based approaches can potentially solve this problem. We propose an innovative approach to decouple the construction of quantile representations from the loss function allowing us to compute quantile based probabilities without disturbing the original network. We achieve this by establishing a novel duality property between quantiles and probabilities, and an ability to obtain quantile probabilities from any pre-trained classifier. While post-hoc calibration techniques successfully minimize calibration errors, they do not preserve robustness to distortions. We show that, Quantile probabilities (QuantProb), obtained from Quantile representations, preserve the calibration errors across distortions, since quantile probabilities generalize better than the naive Softmax probabilities.