MATNet: Multi-Level Fusion Transformer-Based Model for Day-Ahead PV Generation Forecasting

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of renewable generation is crucial to facilitate the integration of RES into the power system. Focusing on PV units, forecasting methods can be divided into two main categories: physics-based and data-based strategies, with AI-based models providing state-of-the-art performance. However, while these AI-based models can capture complex patterns and relationships in the data, they ignore the underlying physical prior knowledge of the phenomenon. Therefore, in this paper we propose MATNet, a novel self-attention transformer-based architecture for multivariate multi-step day-ahead PV power generation forecasting. It consists of a hybrid approach that combines the AI paradigm with the prior physical knowledge of PV power generation of physics-based methods. The model is fed with historical PV data and historical and forecast weather data through a multi-level joint fusion approach. The effectiveness of the proposed model is evaluated using the Ausgrid benchmark dataset with different regression performance metrics. The results show that our proposed architecture significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods. These findings demonstrate the potential of MATNet in improving forecasting accuracy and suggest that it could be a promising solution to facilitate the integration of PV energy into the power grid.