Stance Prediction and Analysis of Twitter data : A case study of Ghana 2020 Presidential Elections

Abstract

On December 7, 2020, Ghanaians participated in the polls to determine their president for the next four years. To gain insights from this presidential election, we conducted stance analysis (which is not always equivalent to sentiment analysis) to understand how Twitter, a popular social media platform, reflected the opinions of its users regarding the two main presidential candidates. We collected a total of 99,356 tweets using the Twitter API (Tweepy) and manually annotated 3,090 tweets into three classes: Against, Neutral, and Support. We then performed preprocessing on the tweets. The resulting dataset was evaluated using two lexicon-based approaches, VADER and TextBlob, as well as five supervised machine learning-based approaches: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), Multinomial Naïve Bayes (MNB), Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), and Random Forest (RF), based on metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. The best performance was achieved by Logistic Regression with an accuracy of 71.13%. We utilized Logistic Regression to classify all the extracted tweets and subsequently conducted an analysis and discussion of the results. For access to our data and code, please visit: https://github.com/ShesterG/Stance-Detection-Ghana-2020-Elections.git