When does the ID algorithm fail?

Ilya Shpitser
7/7/2023
stat.MEcs.AIcs.LG

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Abstract

The ID algorithm solves the problem of identification of interventional distributions of the form p(Y | do(a)) in graphical causal models, and has been formulated in a number of ways [12, 9, 6]. The ID algorithm is sound (outputs the correct functional of the observed data distribution whenever p(Y | do(a)) is identified in the causal model represented by the input graph), and complete (explicitly flags as a failure any input p(Y | do(a)) whenever this distribution is not identified in the causal model represented by the input graph). The reference [9] provides a result, the so called "hedge criterion" (Corollary 3), which aims to give a graphical characterization of situations when the ID algorithm fails to identify its input in terms of a structure in the input graph called the hedge. While the ID algorithm is, indeed, a sound and complete algorithm, and the hedge structure does arise whenever the input distribution is not identified, Corollary 3 presented in [9] is incorrect as stated. In this note, I outline the modern presentation of the ID algorithm, discuss a simple counterexample to Corollary 3, and provide a number of graphical characterizations of the ID algorithm failing to identify its input distribution.

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@article{shpitser2023when,
  title  = {When does the ID algorithm fail?},
  author = {Ilya Shpitser},
  year   = {2023},
  eprint = {2307.03750},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2307.03750v1}
}

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