Two-Stage Classifier for Campaign Negativity Detection using Axis Embeddings: A Case Study on Tweets of Political Users during 2021 Presidential Election in Iran

Abstract

In elections around the world, the candidates may turn their campaigns toward negativity due to the prospect of failure and time pressure. In the digital age, social media platforms such as Twitter are rich sources of political discourse. Therefore, despite the large amount of data that is published on Twitter, the automatic system for campaign negativity detection can play an essential role in understanding the strategy of candidates and parties in their campaigns. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model for detecting campaign negativity consisting of a two-stage classifier that combines the strengths of two machine learning models. Here, we have collected Persian tweets from 50 political users, including candidates and government officials. Then we annotated 5,100 of them that were published during the year before the 2021 presidential election in Iran. In the proposed model, first, the required datasets of two classifiers based on the cosine similarity of tweet embeddings with axis embeddings (which are the average of embedding in positive and negative classes of tweets) from the training set (85\%) are made, and then these datasets are considered the training set of the two classifiers in the hybrid model. Finally, our best model (RF-RF) was able to achieve 79\% for the macro F1 score and 82\% for the weighted F1 score. By running the best model on the rest of the tweets of 50 political users that were published one year before the election and with the help of statistical models, we find that the publication of a tweet by a candidate has nothing to do with the negativity of that tweet, and the presence of the names of political persons and political organizations in the tweet is directly related to its negativity.