Inference for Probabilistic Dependency Graphs

Abstract

Probabilistic dependency graphs (PDGs) are a flexible class of probabilistic graphical models, subsuming Bayesian Networks and Factor Graphs. They can also capture inconsistent beliefs, and provide a way of measuring the degree of this inconsistency. We present the first tractable inference algorithm for PDGs with discrete variables, making the asymptotic complexity of PDG inference similar that of the graphical models they generalize. The key components are: (1) the observation that, in many cases, the distribution a PDG specifies can be formulated as a convex optimization problem (with exponential cone constraints), (2) a construction that allows us to express these problems compactly for PDGs of boundeed treewidth, (3) contributions to the theory of PDGs that justify the construction, and (4) an appeal to interior point methods that can solve such problems in polynomial time. We verify the correctness and complexity of our approach, and provide an implementation of it. We then evaluate our implementation, and demonstrate that it outperforms baseline approaches. Our code is available at http://github.com/orichardson/pdg-infer-uai.