Improved identification accuracy in equation learning via comprehensive $\boldsymbol{R^2}$-elimination and Bayesian model selection

Abstract

In the field of equation learning, exhaustively considering all possible equations derived from a basis function dictionary is infeasible. Sparse regression and greedy algorithms have emerged as popular approaches to tackle this challenge. However, the presence of multicollinearity poses difficulties for sparse regression techniques, and greedy steps may inadvertently exclude terms of the true equation, leading to reduced identification accuracy. In this article, we present an approach that strikes a balance between comprehensiveness and efficiency in equation learning. Inspired by stepwise regression, our approach combines the coefficient of determination, $R^2$, and the Bayesian model evidence, $p(\boldsymbol y|\mathcal M)$, in a novel way. Our procedure is characterized by a comprehensive search with just a minor reduction of the model space at each iteration step. With two flavors of our approach and the adoption of $p(\boldsymbol y|\mathcal M)$ for bi-directional stepwise regression, we present a total of three new avenues for equation learning. Through three extensive numerical experiments involving random polynomials and dynamical systems, we compare our approach against four state-of-the-art methods and two standard approaches. The results demonstrate that our comprehensive search approach surpasses all other methods in terms of identification accuracy. In particular, the second flavor of our approach establishes an efficient overfitting penalty solely based on $R^2$, which achieves highest rates of exact equation recovery.