ShuttleSHAP: A Turn-Based Feature Attribution Approach for Analyzing Forecasting Models in Badminton

Abstract

Agent forecasting systems have been explored to investigate agent patterns and improve decision-making in various domains, e.g., pedestrian predictions and marketing bidding. Badminton represents a fascinating example of a multifaceted turn-based sport, requiring both sophisticated tactic developments and alternate-dependent decision-making. Recent deep learning approaches for player tactic forecasting in badminton show promising performance partially attributed to effective reasoning about rally-player interactions. However, a critical obstacle lies in the unclear functionality of which features are learned for simulating players' behaviors by black-box models, where existing explainers are not equipped with turn-based and multi-output attributions. To bridge this gap, we propose a turn-based feature attribution approach, ShuttleSHAP, for analyzing forecasting models in badminton based on variants of Shapley values. ShuttleSHAP is a model-agnostic explainer that aims to quantify contribution by not only temporal aspects but also player aspects in terms of multifaceted cues. Incorporating the proposed analysis tool into the state-of-the-art turn-based forecasting model on the benchmark dataset reveals that it is, in fact, insignificant to reason about past strokes, while conventional sequential models have greater impacts. Instead, players' styles influence the models for the future simulation of a rally. On top of that, we investigate and discuss the causal analysis of these findings and demonstrate the practicability with local analysis.