Harmful algal bloom forecasting. A comparison between stream and batch learning

Abstract

Diarrhetic Shellfish Poisoning (DSP) is a global health threat arising from shellfish contaminated with toxins produced by dinoflagellates. The condition, with its widespread incidence, high morbidity rate, and persistent shellfish toxicity, poses risks to public health and the shellfish industry. High biomass of toxin-producing algae such as DSP are known as Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs). Monitoring and forecasting systems are crucial for mitigating HABs impact. Predicting harmful algal blooms involves a time-series-based problem with a strong historical seasonal component, however, recent anomalies due to changes in meteorological and oceanographic events have been observed. Stream Learning stands out as one of the most promising approaches for addressing time-series-based problems with concept drifts. However, its efficacy in predicting HABs remains unproven and needs to be tested in comparison with Batch Learning. Historical data availability is a critical point in developing predictive systems. In oceanography, the available data collection can have some constrains and limitations, which has led to exploring new tools to obtain more exhaustive time series. In this study, a machine learning workflow for predicting the number of cells of a toxic dinoflagellate, Dinophysis acuminata, was developed with several key advancements. Seven machine learning algorithms were compared within two learning paradigms. Notably, the output data from CROCO, the ocean hydrodynamic model, was employed as the primary dataset, palliating the limitation of time-continuous historical data. This study highlights the value of models interpretability, fair models comparison methodology, and the incorporation of Stream Learning models. The model DoME, with an average R2 of 0.77 in the 3-day-ahead prediction, emerged as the most effective and interpretable predictor, outperforming the other algorithms.