Addressing Concept Shift in Online Time Series Forecasting: Detect-then-Adapt

Abstract

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to tackle the challenge of concept drifting by adjusting forecasting models based on streaming data. While numerous algorithms have been developed, most of them focus on model design and updating. In practice, many of these methods struggle with continuous performance regression in the face of accumulated concept drifts over time. To address this limitation, we present a novel approach, Concept \textbf{D}rift \textbf{D}etection an\textbf{D} \textbf{A}daptation (D3A), that first detects drifting conception and then aggressively adapts the current model to the drifted concepts after the detection for rapid adaption. To best harness the utility of historical data for model adaptation, we propose a data augmentation strategy introducing Gaussian noise into existing training instances. It helps mitigate the data distribution gap, a critical factor contributing to train-test performance inconsistency. The significance of our data augmentation process is verified by our theoretical analysis. Our empirical studies across six datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of D3A in improving model adaptation capability. Notably, compared to a simple Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) baseline, D3A reduces the average Mean Squared Error (MSE) by $43.9\%$. For the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model, the MSE is reduced by $33.3\%$.