Partially-Observable Sequential Change-Point Detection for Autocorrelated Data via Upper Confidence Region

Abstract

Sequential change point detection for multivariate autocorrelated data is a very common problem in practice. However, when the sensing resources are limited, only a subset of variables from the multivariate system can be observed at each sensing time point. This raises the problem of partially observable multi-sensor sequential change point detection. For it, we propose a detection scheme called adaptive upper confidence region with state space model (AUCRSS). It models multivariate time series via a state space model (SSM), and uses an adaptive sampling policy for efficient change point detection and localization. A partially-observable Kalman filter algorithm is developed for online inference of SSM, and accordingly, a change point detection scheme based on a generalized likelihood ratio test is developed. How its detection power relates to the adaptive sampling strategy is analyzed. Meanwhile, by treating the detection power as a reward, its connection with the online combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) problem is formulated and an adaptive upper confidence region algorithm is proposed for adaptive sampling policy design. Theoretical analysis of the asymptotic average detection delay is performed, and thorough numerical studies with synthetic data and real-world data are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.