Magnetogram-to-Magnetogram: Generative Forecasting of Solar Evolution

Abstract

Investigating the solar magnetic field is crucial to understand the physical processes in the solar interior as well as their effects on the interplanetary environment. We introduce a novel method to predict the evolution of the solar line-of-sight (LoS) magnetogram using image-to-image translation with Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs). Our approach combines "computer science metrics" for image quality and "physics metrics" for physical accuracy to evaluate model performance. The results indicate that DDPMs are effective in maintaining the structural integrity, the dynamic range of solar magnetic fields, the magnetic flux and other physical features such as the size of the active regions, surpassing traditional persistence models, also in flaring situation. We aim to use deep learning not only for visualisation but as an integrative and interactive tool for telescopes, enhancing our understanding of unexpected physical events like solar flares. Future studies will aim to integrate more diverse solar data to refine the accuracy and applicability of our generative model.