Classifying populist language in American presidential and governor speeches using automatic text analysis

Abstract

Populism is a concept that is often used but notoriously difficult to measure. Common qualitative measurements like holistic grading or content analysis require great amounts of time and labour, making it difficult to quickly scope out which politicians should be classified as populist and which should not, while quantitative methods show mixed results when it comes to classifying populist rhetoric. In this paper, we develop a pipeline to train and validate an automated classification model to estimate the use of populist language. We train models based on sentences that were identified as populist and pluralist in 300 US governors' speeches from 2010 to 2018 and in 45 speeches of presidential candidates in 2016. We find that these models classify most speeches correctly, including 84% of governor speeches and 89% of presidential speeches. These results extend to different time periods (with 92% accuracy on more recent American governors), different amounts of data (with as few as 70 training sentences per category achieving similar results), and when classifying politicians instead of individual speeches. This pipeline is thus an effective tool that can optimise the systematic and swift classification of the use of populist language in politicians' speeches.