UFLUX v2.0: A Process-Informed Machine Learning Framework for Efficient and Explainable Modelling of Terrestrial Carbon Uptake

Abstract

Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), the amount of carbon plants fixed by photosynthesis, is pivotal for understanding the global carbon cycle and ecosystem functioning. Process-based models built on the knowledge of ecological processes are susceptible to biases stemming from their assumptions and approximations. These limitations potentially result in considerable uncertainties in global GPP estimation, which may pose significant challenges to our Net Zero goals. This study presents UFLUX v2.0, a process-informed model that integrates state-of-art ecological knowledge and advanced machine learning techniques to reduce uncertainties in GPP estimation by learning the biases between process-based models and eddy covariance (EC) measurements. In our findings, UFLUX v2.0 demonstrated a substantial improvement in model accuracy, achieving an R^2 of 0.79 with a reduced RMSE of 1.60 g C m^-2 d^-1, compared to the process-based model's R^2 of 0.51 and RMSE of 3.09 g C m^-2 d^-1. Our global GPP distribution analysis indicates that while UFLUX v2.0 and the process-based model achieved similar global total GPP (137.47 Pg C and 132.23 Pg C, respectively), they exhibited large differences in spatial distribution, particularly in latitudinal gradients. These differences are very likely due to systematic biases in the process-based model and differing sensitivities to climate and environmental conditions. This study offers improved adaptability for GPP modelling across diverse ecosystems, and further enhances our understanding of global carbon cycles and its responses to environmental changes.