Improving the accuracy of food security predictions by integrating conflict data

Marco Bertetti, Paolo Agnolucci, Alvaro Calzadilla, Licia Capra
10/12/2024
cs.CYcs.LG

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Abstract

Violence and armed conflicts have emerged as prominent factors driving food crises. However, the extent of their impact remains largely unexplored. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the impact of violent conflicts on food security in Africa. We performed a comprehensive correlation analysis using data from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) and the Armed Conflict Location Event Data (ACLED). Our results show that using conflict data to train machine learning models leads to a 1.5% increase in accuracy compared to models that do not incorporate conflict-related information. The key contribution of this study is the quantitative analysis of the impact of conflicts on food security predictions.

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Cite this paper

@article{bertetti2024improving,
  title  = {Improving the accuracy of food security predictions by integrating conflict data},
  author = {Marco Bertetti and Paolo Agnolucci and Alvaro Calzadilla and Licia Capra},
  year   = {2024},
  eprint = {2410.22342},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2410.22342v1}
}

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