Are Deep Learning Methods Suitable for Downscaling Global Climate Projections? An Intercomparison for Temperature and Precipitation over Spain

Abstract

Deep Learning (DL) has shown promise for downscaling global climate change projections under different approaches, including Perfect Prognosis (PP) and Regional Climate Model (RCM) emulation. Unlike emulators, PP downscaling models are trained on observational data, so it remains an open question whether they can plausibly extrapolate unseen conditions and changes in future emissions scenarios. Here we focus on this problem as the main drawback for the operationalization of these methods and present the results of an intercomparison experiment to evaluate the performance and extrapolation capability of existing models using a common experimental framework, taking into account the sensitivity of results to different training replicas. We focus on minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation over Spain, a region with a range of climatic conditions with different influential regional processes. We conclude with a discussion of the findings, limitations of existing methods, and prospects for future development.