Global-Decision-Focused Neural ODEs for Proactive Grid Resilience Management

Abstract

Extreme hazard events such as wildfires and hurricanes increasingly threaten power systems, causing widespread outages and disrupting critical services. Recently, predict-then-optimize approaches have gained traction in grid operations, where system functionality forecasts are first generated and then used as inputs for downstream decision-making. However, this two-stage method often results in a misalignment between prediction and optimization objectives, leading to suboptimal resource allocation. To address this, we propose predict-all-then-optimize-globally (PATOG), a framework that integrates outage prediction with globally optimized interventions. At its core, our global-decision-focused (GDF) neural ODE model captures outage dynamics while optimizing resilience strategies in a decision-aware manner. Unlike conventional methods, our approach ensures spatially and temporally coherent decision-making, improving both predictive accuracy and operational efficiency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in outage prediction consistency and grid resilience.