Advancing Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hybrid AI-Physics Climate Model

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid ML-physics atmospheric model developed by Google, for seasonal predictions of large-scale atmospheric variability and Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity. Inspired by physical model studies, we simplify boundary conditions, assuming sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice follow their climatological cycle but persist anomalies present at the initialization time. With such forcings, NeuralGCM can generate 100 simulation days in ~8 minutes with a single Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), while simulating realistic atmospheric circulation and TC climatology patterns. This configuration yields useful seasonal predictions (July to November) for the tropical atmosphere and various TC activity metrics. Notably, the predicted and observed TC frequency in the North Atlantic and East Pacific basins are significantly correlated during 1990 to 2023 (r=~0.7), suggesting prediction skill comparable to existing physical GCMs. Despite challenges associated with model resolution and simplified boundary forcings, the model-predicted interannual variations demonstrate significant correlations with the observation, including the sub-basin TC tracks (p<0.1) and basin-wide accumulated cyclone energy (p<0.01) of the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. These findings highlight the promise of leveraging ML models with physical insights to model TC risks and deliver seamless weather-climate predictions.