Scaling Transformers for Time Series Forecasting: Do Pretrained Large Models Outperform Small-Scale Alternatives?

Abstract

Large pre-trained models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across domains, but their effectiveness in time series forecasting remains understudied. This work empirically examines whether pre-trained large-scale time series models (LSTSMs) trained on diverse datasets can outperform traditional non-pretrained small-scale transformers in forecasting tasks. We analyze state-of-the-art (SOTA) pre-trained universal time series models (e.g., Moirai, TimeGPT) alongside conventional transformers, evaluating accuracy, computational efficiency, and interpretability across multiple benchmarks. Our findings reveal the strengths and limitations of pre-trained LSTSMs, providing insights into their suitability for time series tasks compared to task-specific small-scale architectures. The results highlight scenarios where pretraining offers advantages and where simpler models remain competitive.