Temporal Analysis of Climate Policy Discourse: Insights from Dynamic Embedded Topic Modeling

Abstract

Understanding how policy language evolves over time is critical for assessing global responses to complex challenges such as climate change. Temporal analysis helps stakeholders, including policymakers and researchers, to evaluate past priorities, identify emerging themes, design governance strategies, and develop mitigation measures. Traditional approaches, such as manual thematic coding, are time-consuming and limited in capturing the complex, interconnected nature of global policy discourse. With the increasing relevance of unsupervised machine learning, these limitations can be addressed, particularly under high-volume, complex, and high-dimensional data conditions. In this work, we explore a novel approach that applies the dynamic embedded topic model (DETM) to analyze the evolution of global climate policy discourse. A probabilistic model designed to capture the temporal dynamics of topics over time. We collected a corpus of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) policy decisions from 1995 to 2023, excluding 2020 due to the postponement of COP26 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model reveals shifts from early emphases on greenhouse gases and international conventions to recent focuses on implementation, technical collaboration, capacity building, finance, and global agreements. Section 3 presents the modeling pipeline, including preprocessing, model training, and visualization of temporal word distributions. Our results show that DETM is a scalable and effective tool for analyzing the evolution of global policy discourse. Section 4 discusses the implications of these findings and we concluded with future directions and refinements to extend this approach to other policy domains.