Elite Polarization in European Parliamentary Speeches: a Novel Measurement Approach Using Large Language Models

Abstract

This project introduces a new measure of elite polarization via actor and subject detection using artificial intelligence. I identify when politicians mention one another in parliamentary speeches, note who is speaking and who is being addressed, and assess the emotional temperature behind these evaluations. This maps how elites evaluate their various out-parties, allowing us to create an index of mutual out-party hostility, that is, elite polarization. While I analyzed polarization data over the past four decades for the UK, and two decades for Hungary and Italy, my approach lays the groundwork for a twenty-year, EU-wide time-series dataset on elite polarization. I obtain the results that can be aggregated by party and quarter. The resulting index demonstrates a good face validity: it reacts to events such as electoral campaigns, country- and party-level crises, and to parties losing and assuming power.