EP-GAT: Energy-based Parallel Graph Attention Neural Network for Stock Trend Classification

Abstract

Graph neural networks have shown remarkable performance in forecasting stock movements, which arises from learning complex inter-dependencies between stocks and intra-dynamics of stocks. Existing approaches based on graph neural networks typically rely on static or manually defined factors to model changing inter-dependencies between stocks. Furthermore, these works often struggle to preserve hierarchical features within stocks. To bridge these gaps, this work presents the Energy-based Parallel Graph Attention Neural Network, a novel approach for predicting future movements for multiple stocks. First, it generates a dynamic stock graph with the energy difference between stocks and Boltzmann distribution, capturing evolving inter-dependencies between stocks. Then, a parallel graph attention mechanism is proposed to preserve the hierarchical intra-stock dynamics. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets are conducted to validate the proposed approach, spanning from the US stock markets (NASDAQ, NYSE, SP) and UK stock markets (FTSE, LSE). The experimental results demonstrate that EP-GAT consistently outperforms competitive five baselines on test periods across various metrics. The ablation studies and hyperparameter sensitivity analysis further validate the effectiveness of each module in the proposed method.