A Data-Driven Approach to Estimate LEO Orbit Capacity Models

Braden Stock, Maddox McVarthy, Simone Servadio
7/25/2025
cs.LG

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Abstract

Utilizing the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics algorithm (SINDy) and Long Short-Term Memory Recurrent Neural Networks (LSTM), the population of resident space objects, divided into Active, Derelict, and Debris, in LEO can be accurately modeled to predict future satellite and debris propagation. This proposed approach makes use of a data set coming from a computational expensive high-fidelity model, the MOCAT-MC, to provide a light, low-fidelity counterpart that provides accurate forecasting in a shorter time frame.

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Cite this paper

@article{stock2025datadriven,
  title  = {A Data-Driven Approach to Estimate LEO Orbit Capacity Models},
  author = {Braden Stock and Maddox McVarthy and Simone Servadio},
  year   = {2025},
  eprint = {2507.19365},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2507.19365v1}
}

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