The Statistical Validation of Innovation Lens

Giacomo Radaelli, Jonah Lynch
8/19/2025
cs.DLcs.AI

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Abstract

Information overload and the rapid pace of scientific advancement make it increasingly difficult to evaluate and allocate resources to new research proposals. Is there a structure to scientific discovery that could inform such decisions? We present statistical evidence for such structure, by training a classifier that successfully predicts high-citation research papers between 2010-2024 in the Computer Science, Physics, and PubMed domains.

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Cite this paper

@article{radaelli2025statistical,
  title  = {The Statistical Validation of Innovation Lens},
  author = {Giacomo Radaelli and Jonah Lynch},
  year   = {2025},
  eprint = {2508.14139},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2508.14139v1}
}

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