Generative Latent Diffusion Model for Inverse Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis in Geological Carbon Sequestration

Abstract

Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS) has emerged as a promising strategy for mitigating global warming, yet its effectiveness heavily depends on accurately characterizing subsurface flow dynamics. The inherent geological uncertainty, stemming from limited observations and reservoir heterogeneity, poses significant challenges to predictive modeling. Existing methods for inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification are computationally intensive and lack generalizability, restricting their practical utility. Here, we introduce a Conditional Neural Field Latent Diffusion (CoNFiLD-geo) model, a generative framework for efficient and uncertainty-aware forward and inverse modeling of GCS processes. CoNFiLD-geo synergistically combines conditional neural field encoding with Bayesian conditional latent-space diffusion models, enabling zero-shot conditional generation of geomodels and reservoir responses across complex geometries and grid structures. The model is pretrained unconditionally in a self-supervised manner, followed by a Bayesian posterior sampling process, allowing for data assimilation for unseen/unobserved states without task-specific retraining. Comprehensive validation across synthetic and real-world GCS scenarios demonstrates CoNFiLD-geo's superior efficiency, generalization, scalability, and robustness. By enabling effective data assimilation, uncertainty quantification, and reliable forward modeling, CoNFiLD-geo significantly advances intelligent decision-making in geo-energy systems, supporting the transition toward a sustainable, net-zero carbon future.