Exploring Over-stationarization in Deep Learning-based Bus/Tram Arrival Time Prediction: Analysis and Non-stationary Effect Recovery

Abstract

Arrival time prediction (ATP) of public transport vehicles is essential in improving passenger experience and supporting traffic management. Deep learning has demonstrated outstanding performance in ATP due to its ability to model non-linear and temporal dynamics. In the multi-step ATP, non-stationary data will degrade the model performance due to the variation in variables' joint distribution along the temporal direction. Previous studies mainly applied normalization to eliminate the non-stationarity in time series, thereby achieving better predictability. However, the normalization may obscure useful characteristics inherent in non-stationarity, which is known as the over-stationarization. In this work, to trade off predictability and non-stationarity, a new approach for multi-step ATP, named non-stationary ATP ( NSATP), is proposed. The method consists of two stages: series stationarization and non-stationarity effect recovery. The first stage aims at improving the predictability. As for the latter, NSATP extends a state-of-the-art method from one-dimensional to two dimensional based models to capture the hidden periodicity in time series and designs a compensation module of over-stationarization by learning scaling and shifting factors from raw data. 125 days' public transport operational data of Dresden is collected for validation. Experimental results show that compared to baseline methods, the proposed NSATP can reduce RMSE, MAE, and MAPE by 2.37%, 1.22%, and 2.26% for trams and by 1.72%, 0.60%, and 1.17% for buses, respectively.