CountTRuCoLa: Rule Confidence Learning for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting

Julia Gastinger, Christian Meilicke, Heiner Stuckenschmidt
9/11/2025
cs.LG

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Abstract

We address the task of temporal knowledge graph (TKG) forecasting by introducing a fully explainable method based on temporal rules. Motivated by recent work proposing a strong baseline using recurrent facts, our approach learns four simple types of rules with a confidence function that considers both recency and frequency. Evaluated on nine datasets, our method matches or surpasses the performance of eight state-of-the-art models and two baselines, while providing fully interpretable predictions.

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Cite this paper

@article{gastinger2025counttrucola,
  title  = {CountTRuCoLa: Rule Confidence Learning for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting},
  author = {Julia Gastinger and Christian Meilicke and Heiner Stuckenschmidt},
  year   = {2025},
  eprint = {2509.09474},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.09474v1}
}

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