DeepSeasons: a Deep Learning scale-selecting approach to Seasonal Forecasts

Abstract

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts. Leveraging advanced neural network architectures and extensive historical climatic datasets, DeepSeasons identifies complex, nonlinear patterns and dependencies in climate variables with similar or improved skill respcet GCM-based forecasting methods, at a significant lower cost. The framework also allow tailored application to specific regions or variables, rather than the overall problem of predicting the entire atmosphere/ocean system. The proposed methods also allow for direct predictions of anomalies and time-means, opening a new approach to long-term forecasting and highlighting its potential for operational deployment in climate-sensitive sectors. This innovative methodology promises substantial improvements in managing climate-related risks and decision-making processes.