Data Fusion and Machine Learning for Ship Fuel Consumption Modelling -- A Case of Bulk Carrier Vessel

Abstract

There is an increasing push for operational measures to reduce ships' bunker fuel consumption and carbon emissions, driven by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandates. Key performance indicators such as the Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) focus on fuel efficiency. Strategies like trim optimization, virtual arrival, and green routing have emerged. The theoretical basis for these approaches lies in accurate prediction of fuel consumption as a function of sailing speed, displacement, trim, climate, and sea state. This study utilized 296 voyage reports from a bulk carrier vessel over one year (November 16, 2021 to November 21, 2022) and 28 parameters, integrating hydrometeorological big data from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) with 19 parameters and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with 61 parameters. The objective was to evaluate whether fusing external public data sources enhances modeling accuracy and to highlight the most influential parameters affecting fuel consumption. The results reveal a strong potential for machine learning techniques to predict ship fuel consumption accurately by combining voyage reports with climate and sea data. However, validation on similar classes of vessels remains necessary to confirm generalizability.