A Hybrid PCA-PR-Seq2Seq-Adam-LSTM Framework for Time-Series Power Outage Prediction

Abstract

Accurately forecasting power outages is a complex task influenced by diverse factors such as weather conditions [1], vegetation, wildlife, and load fluctuations. These factors introduce substantial variability and noise into outage data, making reliable prediction challenging. Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, a type of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), are particularly effective for modeling nonlinear and dynamic time-series data, with proven applications in stock price forecasting [2], energy demand prediction, demand response [3], and traffic flow management [4]. This paper introduces a hybrid deep learning framework, termed PCA-PR-Seq2Seq-Adam-LSTM, that integrates Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Poisson Regression (PR), a Sequence-to-Sequence (Seq2Seq) architecture, and an Adam-optimized LSTM. PCA is employed to reduce dimensionality and stabilize data variance, while Poisson Regression effectively models discrete outage events. The Seq2Seq-Adam-LSTM component enhances temporal feature learning through efficient gradient optimization and long-term dependency capture. The framework is evaluated using real-world outage records from Michigan, and results indicate that the proposed approach significantly improves forecasting accuracy and robustness compared to existing methods.