A Systematic Review of Conformal Inference Procedures for Treatment Effect Estimation: Methods and Challenges

Abstract

Treatment effect estimation is essential for informed decision-making in many fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. While flexible machine learning models have been widely applied for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, quantifying the inherent uncertainty of their point predictions remains an issue. Recent advancements in conformal prediction address this limitation by allowing for inexpensive computation, as well as distribution shifts, while still providing frequentist, finite-sample coverage guarantees under minimal assumptions for any point-predictor model. This advancement holds significant potential for improving decision-making in especially high-stakes environments. In this work, we perform a systematic review regarding conformal prediction methods for treatment effect estimation and provide for both the necessary theoretical background. Through a systematic filtering process, we select and analyze eleven key papers, identifying and describing current state-of-the-art methods in this area. Based on our findings, we propose directions for future research.