Sample-efficient Multiclass Calibration under $\ell_{p}$ Error

Konstantina Bairaktari, Huy L. Nguyen
9/26/2025
cs.LGcs.DS

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Abstract

Calibrating a multiclass predictor, that outputs a distribution over labels, is particularly challenging due to the exponential number of possible prediction values. In this work, we propose a new definition of calibration error that interpolates between two established calibration error notions, one with known exponential sample complexity and one with polynomial sample complexity for calibrating a given predictor. Our algorithm can calibrate any given predictor for the entire range of interpolation, except for one endpoint, using only a polynomial number of samples. At the other endpoint, we achieve nearly optimal dependence on the error parameter, improving upon previous work. A key technical contribution is a novel application of adaptive data analysis with high adaptivity but only logarithmic overhead in the sample complexity.

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@article{bairaktari2025sampleefficient,
  title  = {Sample-efficient Multiclass Calibration under $\ell_{p}$ Error},
  author = {Konstantina Bairaktari and Huy L. Nguyen},
  year   = {2025},
  eprint = {2509.23000},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2509.23000v1}
}

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