Predicting Stock Price Movement with LLM-Enhanced Tweet Emotion Analysis

Abstract

Accurately predicting short-term stock price movement remains a challenging task due to the market's inherent volatility and sensitivity to investor sentiment. This paper discusses a deep learning framework that integrates emotion features extracted from tweet data with historical stock price information to forecast significant price changes on the following day. We utilize Meta's Llama 3.1-8B-Instruct model to preprocess tweet data, thereby enhancing the quality of emotion features derived from three emotion analysis approaches: a transformer-based DistilRoBERTa classifier from the Hugging Face library and two lexicon-based methods using National Research Council Canada (NRC) resources. These features are combined with previous-day stock price data to train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. Experimental results on TSLA, AAPL, and AMZN stocks show that all three emotion analysis methods improve the average accuracy for predicting significant price movements, compared to the baseline model using only historical stock prices, which yields an accuracy of 13.5%. The DistilRoBERTa-based stock prediction model achieves the best performance, with accuracy rising from 23.6% to 38.5% when using LLaMA-enhanced emotion analysis. These results demonstrate that using large language models to preprocess tweet content enhances the effectiveness of emotion analysis which in turn improves the accuracy of predicting significant stock price movements.