Carbon Emission Prediction in China Considering New Quality Productive Forces Using a Deep & Corss Learning Modeling Framework

Abstract

New quality productive forces (NQPF), digital economy advancement, and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are becoming crucial for promoting sustainable urban development. This study proposes a Multi-head Attention Deep & Cross Network (MADCN) framework, combining feature interaction modeling and attention mechanisms, to predict urban carbon emissions and investigate the impacts of technological factors. The framework incorporates an interpretable learning phase using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to assess the contributions of different features. A panel dataset covering 275 Chinese cities is utilized to test the MADCN model. Experimental results demonstrate that the MADCN model achieves superior predictive performance compared to traditional machine learning and deep learning baselines, with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 406,151.063, a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 612.304, and an R-squared value of 0.991 on the test set. SHAP analysis highlights that population, city size, urbanization rate, and GDP are among the most influential factors on carbon emissions, while NQPF, digital economy index, and AI technology level also show meaningful but relatively moderate effects. Advancing NQPF, strengthening the digital economy, and accelerating AI technology development can significantly contribute to reducing urban carbon emissions. Policymakers should prioritize integrating technological innovation into carbon reduction strategies, particularly by promoting intelligent infrastructure and enhancing digitalization across sectors, to effectively achieve dual-carbon goals.