Flexible Swarm Learning May Outpace Foundation Models in Essential Tasks

Abstract

Foundation models have rapidly advanced AI, raising the question of whether their decisions will ultimately surpass human strategies in real-world domains. The exponential, and possibly super-exponential, pace of AI development makes such analysis elusive. Nevertheless, many application areas that matter for daily life and society show only modest gains so far; a prominent case is diagnosing and treating dynamically evolving disease in intensive care. The common challenge is adapting complex systems to dynamic environments. Effective strategies must optimize outcomes in systems composed of strongly interacting functions while avoiding shared side effects; this requires reliable, self-adaptive modeling. These tasks align with building digital twins of highly complex systems whose mechanisms are not fully or quantitatively understood. It is therefore essential to develop methods for self-adapting AI models with minimal data and limited mechanistic knowledge. As this challenge extends beyond medicine, AI should demonstrate clear superiority in these settings before assuming broader decision-making roles. We identify the curse of dimensionality as a fundamental barrier to efficient self-adaptation and argue that monolithic foundation models face conceptual limits in overcoming it. As an alternative, we propose a decentralized architecture of interacting small agent networks (SANs). We focus on agents representing the specialized substructure of the system, where each agent covers only a subset of the full system functions. Drawing on mathematical results on the learning behavior of SANs and evidence from existing applications, we argue that swarm-learning in diverse swarms can enable self-adaptive SANs to deliver superior decision-making in dynamic environments compared with monolithic foundation models, though at the cost of reduced reproducibility in detail.