Prediction of Sea Ice Velocity and Concentration in the Arctic Ocean using Physics-informed Neural Network

Abstract

As an increasing amount of remote sensing data becomes available in the Arctic Ocean, data-driven machine learning (ML) techniques are becoming widely used to predict sea ice velocity (SIV) and sea ice concentration (SIC). However, fully data-driven ML models have limitations in generalizability and physical consistency due to their excessive reliance on the quantity and quality of training data. In particular, as Arctic sea ice entered a new phase with thinner ice and accelerated melting, there is a possibility that an ML model trained with historical sea ice data cannot fully represent the dynamically changing sea ice conditions in the future. In this study, we develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) strategies to integrate physical knowledge of sea ice into the ML model. Based on the Hierarchical Information-sharing U-net (HIS-Unet) architecture, we incorporate the physics loss function and the activation function to produce physically plausible SIV and SIC outputs. Our PINN model outperforms the fully data-driven model in the daily predictions of SIV and SIC, even when trained with a small number of samples. The PINN approach particularly improves SIC predictions in melting and early freezing seasons and near fast-moving ice regions.