MetaCaDI: A Meta-Learning Framework for Scalable Causal Discovery with Unknown Interventions

Hans Jarett Ong, Yoichi Chikahara, Tomoharu Iwata
10/25/2025
stat.MLcs.LG

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Abstract

Uncovering the underlying causal mechanisms of complex real-world systems remains a significant challenge, as these systems often entail high data collection costs and involve unknown interventions. We introduce MetaCaDI, the first framework to cast the joint discovery of a causal graph and unknown interventions as a meta-learning problem. MetaCaDI is a Bayesian framework that learns a shared causal graph structure across multiple experiments and is optimized to rapidly adapt to new, few-shot intervention target prediction tasks. A key innovation is our model's analytical adaptation, which uses a closed-form solution to bypass expensive and potentially unstable gradient-based bilevel optimization. Extensive experiments on synthetic and complex gene expression data demonstrate that MetaCaDI significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods. It excels at both causal graph recovery and identifying intervention targets from as few as 10 data instances, proving its robustness in data-scarce scenarios.

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@article{ong2025metacadi,
  title  = {MetaCaDI: A Meta-Learning Framework for Scalable Causal Discovery with Unknown Interventions},
  author = {Hans Jarett Ong and Yoichi Chikahara and Tomoharu Iwata},
  year   = {2025},
  eprint = {2510.22298},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22298v1}
}

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