Dynamic Intelligence Ceilings: Measuring Long-Horizon Limits of Planning and Creativity in Artificial Systems

Abstract

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have produced systems capable of remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. These gains, however, are increasingly accompanied by concerns regarding long-horizon developmental behavior, as many systems converge toward repetitive solution patterns rather than sustained growth. We argue that a central limitation of contemporary AI systems lies not in capability per se, but in the premature fixation of their performance frontier. To address this issue, we introduce the concept of a \emph{Dynamic Intelligence Ceiling} (DIC), defined as the highest level of effective intelligence attainable by a system at a given time under its current resources, internal intent, and structural configuration. To make this notion empirically tractable, we propose a trajectory-centric evaluation framework that measures intelligence as a moving frontier rather than a static snapshot. We operationalize DIC using two estimators: the \emph{Progressive Difficulty Ceiling} (PDC), which captures the maximal reliably solvable difficulty under constrained resources, and the \emph{Ceiling Drift Rate} (CDR), which quantifies the temporal evolution of this frontier. These estimators are instantiated through a procedurally generated benchmark that jointly evaluates long-horizon planning and structural creativity within a single controlled environment. Our results reveal a qualitative distinction between systems that deepen exploitation within a fixed solution manifold and those that sustain frontier expansion over time. Importantly, our framework does not posit unbounded intelligence, but reframes limits as dynamic and trajectory-dependent rather than static and prematurely fixed. \vspace{0.5em} \noindent\textbf{Keywords:} AI evaluation, planning and creativity, developmental intelligence, dynamic intelligence ceilings, complex adaptive systems