Predicting Healthcare System Visitation Flow by Integrating Hospital Attributes and Population Socioeconomics with Human Mobility Data

Abstract

Healthcare visitation patterns are influenced by a complex interplay of hospital attributes, population socioeconomics, and spatial factors. However, existing research often adopts a fragmented approach, examining these determinants in isolation. This study addresses this gap by integrating hospital capacities, occupancy rates, reputation, and popularity with population SES and spatial mobility patterns to predict visitation flows and analyze influencing factors. Utilizing four years of SafeGraph mobility data and user experience data from Google Maps Reviews, five flow prediction models, Naive Regression, Gradient Boosting, Multilayer Perceptrons (MLPs), Deep Gravity, and Heterogeneous Graph Neural Networks (HGNN),were trained and applied to simulate visitation flows in Houston, Texas, U.S. The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) analysis and the Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) method were employed to examine the combined impacts of different factors on visitation patterns. The findings reveal that Deep Gravity outperformed other models. Hospital capacities, ICU occupancy rates, ratings, and popularity significantly influence visitation patterns, with their effects varying across different travel distances. Short-distance visits are primarily driven by convenience, whereas long-distance visits are influenced by hospital ratings. White-majority areas exhibited lower sensitivity to hospital ratings for short-distance visits, while Asian populations and those with higher education levels prioritized hospital rating in their visitation decisions. SES further influence these patterns, as areas with higher proportions of Hispanic, Black, under-18, and over-65 populations tend to have more frequent hospital visits, potentially reflecting greater healthcare needs or limited access to alternative medical services.