Bayesian-LoRA: Probabilistic Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models

Moule Lin, Shuhao Guan, Andrea Patane, David Gregg, Goetz Botterweck
1/28/2026
cs.AI

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Abstract

Large Language Models usually put more emphasis on accuracy and therefore, will guess even when not certain about the prediction, which is especially severe when fine-tuned on small datasets due to the inherent tendency toward miscalibration. In this work, we introduce Bayesian-LoRA, which reformulates the deterministic LoRA update as a probabilistic low-rank representation inspired by Sparse Gaussian Processes. We identify a structural isomorphism between LoRA's factorization and Kronecker-factored SGP posteriors, and show that LoRA emerges as a limiting case when posterior uncertainty collapses. We conduct extensive experiments on various LLM architectures across commonsense reasoning benchmarks. With only approximately 0.42M additional parameters and ${\approx}1.2{\times}$ training cost relative to standard LoRA, Bayesian-LoRA significantly improves calibration across models up to 30B, achieving up to 84% ECE reduction and 76% NLL reduction while maintaining competitive accuracy for both in-distribution and out-of-distribution (OoD) evaluations.

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Cite this paper

@article{lin2026bayesianlora,
  title  = {Bayesian-LoRA: Probabilistic Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models},
  author = {Moule Lin and Shuhao Guan and Andrea Patane and David Gregg and Goetz Botterweck},
  year   = {2026},
  eprint = {2601.21003},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url    = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2601.21003v1}
}

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