GRAFT: Decoupling Ranking and Calibration for Survival Analysis

Abstract

Survival analysis is complicated by censored data, high-dimensional features, and non-linear interactions. Classical models are interpretable but restrictive, while deep learning models are flexible but often non-interpretable and sensitive to noise. We propose GRAFT (Gated Residual Accelerated Failure Time), a novel AFT model that decouples prognostic ranking from calibration. GRAFT's hybrid architecture combines a linear AFT model with a non-linear residual neural network, and it also integrates stochastic gates for automatic, end-to-end feature selection. The model is trained by directly optimizing a differentiable, C-index-aligned ranking loss using stochastic conditional imputation from local Kaplan-Meier estimators. In public benchmarks, GRAFT outperforms baselines in discrimination and calibration, while remaining robust and sparse in high-noise settings.