An Adaptive Model Selection Framework for Demand Forecasting under Horizon-Induced Degradation to Support Business Strategy and Operations

Abstract

Business environments characterized by structural demand intermittency, high variability, and multi-step planning horizons require robust and reproducible model selection mechanisms. Empirical evidence shows that no forecasting model is universally dominant and that relative rankings vary across error metrics, demand regimes, and forecast horizons, generating ambiguity in multi-SKU decision contexts. This study proposes AHSIV (Adaptive Hybrid Selector for Intermittency and Variability), a horizon-aware and regime-conditioned model selection framework designed to address horizon-induced ranking instability. The proposed approach integrates scaled and absolute error metrics adjusted through a Metric Degradation by Forecast Horizon (MDFH) procedure, structural demand classification, multi-objective Pareto dominance, and hierarchical bias refinement within a unified decision architecture. The empirical evaluation is conducted on the Walmart, M3, M4, and M5 datasets under multiple train-test partition schemes and twelve-step forecasting horizons. Results indicate that AHSIV achieves statistical equivalence with the strongest monometric baseline in terms of aggregated performance while increasing the frequency of horizon-specific best-model selection. The findings demonstrate that model selection in heterogeneous demand environments cannot be treated as a static ranking problem, and that horizon-consistent, structurally adaptive mechanisms provide a principled, operationally coherent solution for multi-SKU forecasting.