PreSight: Preoperative Outcome Prediction for Parkinson's Disease via Region-Prior Morphometry and Patient-Specific Weighting

Abstract

Preoperative improvement rate prediction for Parkinson's disease surgery is clinically important yet difficult because imaging signals are subtle and patients are heterogeneous. We address this setting, where only information available before surgery is used, and the goal is to predict patient-specific postoperative motor benefit. We present PreSight, a presurgical outcome model that fuses clinical priors with preoperative MRI and deformation-based morphometry (DBM) and adapts regional importance through a patient-specific weighting module. The model produces end-to-end, calibrated, decision-ready predictions with patient-level explanations. We evaluate PreSight on a real-world two-center cohort of 400 subjects with multimodal presurgical inputs and postoperative improvement labels. PreSight outperforms strong clinical, imaging-only, and multimodal baselines. It attains 88.89% accuracy on internal validation and 85.29% on an external-center test for responder classification and shows better probability calibration and higher decision-curve net benefit. Ablations and analyses confirm the contribution of DBM and the patient-specific weighting module and indicate that the model emphasizes disease-relevant regions in a patient-specific manner. These results demonstrate that integrating clinical prior knowledge with region-adaptive morphometry enables reliable presurgical decision support in routine practice.