Closing the Loop on Contrail Avoidance with Satellite Verification

Abstract

Contrails are the thin ice clouds that aircraft leave behind. They cause a large share of aviation's warming, and rerouting the few flights that produce them could avoid much of it. However, an avoided contrail only counts if a satellite can confirm that it never formed, and this check is hard: contrails are one to two pixels wide, cover only 0.18% of pixels, and look very similar to natural cirrus. We build a small diffusion model (8.4M parameters, trained on one GPU) that detects them, and we run a controlled study to find out which components matter. The model reaches 0.476 PR-AUC, compared with 0.414 for a DeepLabV3+ baseline and 0.119 for an adapted MedSegDiff. Doubling the input resolution of the CNN brings it to parity (0.499, p=0.07). Three lessons apply beyond contrails. First, check the input resolution before designing a new architecture. Second, simple flips and rotations more than double accuracy and matter more than any architectural choice we measured. Third, pretraining the model on contrail shapes is harmful: the model learns that thin strokes appear everywhere and paints them onto empty scenes. Precision collapses to 1% while recall-based metrics still rate the degraded model as excellent, and no threshold or guidance heuristic repairs this failure.