Beyond Group Splits: Specimen-Level Cross-Validation and Visual Attribution for Remaining-Shelf-Life Regression in Climacteric Fruit

Abstract

Estimating remaining shelf life (RSL) from images could provide affordable decision support for perishable produce, but evaluation protocols can substantially affect reported performance when repeated images are available from the same biological specimen. We use the Hass Avocado Ripening dataset, comprising 8,834 image-RSL pairs from 426 fruits across three storage regimes, to evaluate a frozen ImageNet-pretrained visual backbone with a lightweight regression head. Our contributions are threefold: we quantify the effect of observation-level versus specimen-disjoint evaluation, compare lightweight and heavier visual backbones under specimen-disjoint cross-validation, and examine their spatial attributions using Grad-CAM. Across ten observation-level random splits, the model achieves a mean RMSE of 2.37 days with a standard deviation of 0.03 days, whereas specimen-disjoint 5-fold cross-validation yields a mean RMSE of 3.12 days with a standard deviation of 0.11 days. The corresponding mean coefficient of determination is 0.553. A matched per-specimen comparison confirms higher error under specimen-disjoint evaluation, with a probability value below 0.001 across 426 specimens, showing that observation-level partitioning gives a substantially more optimistic estimate for this dataset and model configuration. Under specimen-disjoint evaluation, MobileNetV3-Small (0.93 million parameters) achieves accuracy comparable to ResNet-18 while providing substantially higher throughput, and Grad-CAM reveals differences in spatial attribution between the lightweight backbones. These results support specimen-disjoint evaluation and attribution analysis when assessing lightweight vision models for longitudinal shelf-life prediction.