Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Rylan Schaeffer, Hailey Schoelkopf, Brando Miranda, Gabriel Mukobi, Varun Madan +4 more
2/14/2026
Semantic Scholar

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Cite this paper

@article{schaeffer2026predicting,
  title  = {Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?},
  author = {Rylan Schaeffer and Hailey Schoelkopf and Brando Miranda and Gabriel Mukobi and Varun Madan and Adam Ibrahim and Herbie Bradley and Stella Biderman and Oluwasanmi Koyejo},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:ecb2901084f7ab8254fa0feed642ee3dd5f4c047},
  journal = {ICML 2025 2025}
}

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